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11/17/17

The Friday OT: Bomba Estereo; Soy yo

Colombia's finest, you can't help but hear this song all over the continent. Cool video too.



Arcade Fire have chosen Bomba Estereo as their opening act on the LatAm leg of its tour in December. They've made a big mistake, the support band is better than the star turn. Youtube here.

Mo´Santacruz (SCZ.v)

Funny coincidence:

1) Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v) gets its Vetagrande mine closed down on November 12th after a snap inspection by Mexican authorities.

2) SCZ says absolutely nothing to the market about this material event.

3) On he evening of November 16th this humble corner of cyberspace notes the events at Vetagrande (and it would have been sooner, just been busy round here).

4) November 17th, less than 24 hours after the IKN post, SCZ finally issues a NR on the closure and informs the market of this material event. Funny that, innit?

That they didn't mention the serious environmental infractions that caused the closedown and tried to pretend in the NR that it's all some paperwork thing is just another example of the way they go about their job.

Zinc One (Z.v): A no-lose trade from Vancouver

With just seven months left on the clock of the scam artist Daniel Ameduri's bet on Zinc One (Z.v), IKN now notes that the whole trade is a no-lose for the world of investment as there are now just two possible outcomes:
1) Zinc One moves up to the CAD$1.30 share price Ameduri promised his shareholders by June 2018, thereby giving us a 210% winner.

2) Zinc One fails to make it to CAD$1.30 and Ameduri keeps his promise by closing down his scam pushing waste of space, Future Money Trends, once and for all. Thereby making the world a better place and ridding the junior market of one more parasite.

And we know Daniel Ameduri is a man of his word and would never try to squirm out of a deal, right? 


11/16/17

Santa Cruz Silver (SCZ.v) seems to have forgotten to tell you something

Beats me why it slipped their minds. I mean, it's normally material information when the mine worth half of your total production is closed down with no warning by authorities due to the breaching of environmental and operations laws. 

Canadian junior mining companies are wondering why they have a bad reputation abroad again. Bless em.

Chart of the day is...

...the last six months of the ten year TIPS yield:


Want to know when gold goes back over U$1,300/oz? That's when the yield goes under 0.4% again. The US Dollar still rules everything. You may not like the idea but the dollar doesn't care.

Peru World Cup Finalists

Yes

11/15/17

Meanwhile, let's check out the illegal stuff the sociopathic Michael Ballanger has been up to

He doesn't just falsely accuse people of being child molesters, his toerag of a life is full of real live illegal activities and now, finally, they're catching up with him. At least we know why Tinka Resources (TK.v) fired him now. Link here, juice below and by the way, Ballanger is available for comment; he's the anonynous troll at the CEO.ca Tinka board.


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1. Michael Ballanger (“Ballanger”) was a Registered Representative at Richardson GMP (“RGMP”) at the material time. In 2013 Ballanger obtained confidential information by virtue of his connections at a high risk illiquid issuer known as Tinka Resources Ltd (“Tinka”).

2. In April 2013, Ballanger failed to comply with RGMP’s policies and procedures when he committed his firm to act for Tinka in a private placement financing without obtaining prior approval.
3. In October 2013, Ballanger failed to comply with RGMP’s policies and procedures by not advising RGMP in a timely manner that he was in possession of confidential or potentially material non public information regarding Tinka.
Background
4. Ballanger was employed as a Registered Representative with RGMP from October 2012 until his employment was terminated in September 2014. Ballanger had been a registrant since 1977 and at one point was licensed as an Assistant Branch Manager. Ballanger has not been an IIROC registrant since leaving RGMP.
5. In a discussion with RGMP’s Chief Compliance Officer (“CCO”) and followed up by a November 15, 2012 email, Ballanger had been informed by the firm’s CCO of RGMP’s procedures regarding the proper handling of potentially material or confidential information. Ballanger’s relationship with Tinka
6. At the relevant time Tinka was a junior resource exploration company which focused on the development of precious metals mines.
7. In 2012 and 2013, Ballanger had a close working relationship with Tinka’s principals and received confidential information from them about the company.
8. Ballanger had recommended Tinka to many of his clients at RGMP. Between November 2012 and July 2013, approximately 10,570,550 shares of Tinka were transferred into RGMP in Ballanger’s book of business. This number represented approximately 13% of the issued and outstanding shares of Tinka at that time. A large portion of the Tinka positions (approximately 5 million shares) were purchased via private placements at RGMP.
9. By March 10, 2014 Ballanger client positions in Tinka represented 18% of the issued and outstanding shares of the company. Ballanger commits RGMP to act for Tinka without prior approval
10. RGMP’s Compliance Policies and Procedures Manual dated June 2011 (the “Policies and Procedures Manual”) provided that the New Product Review Committee review and approve all new third party investment products including private placements for sale within RGMP.
11. On April 24, 2013, Tinka issued a press release announcing a non-brokered private placement financing of up to 2,353,000 units at a price of $0.85 cents per unit for gross proceeds of up to $2,000,050. The press release stated that “Richardson GMP is acting for the Company and will be paid a commission consisting of cash and warrants on a portion of the financing.”
12. Prior to April 24, 2013, Ballanger committed RGMP to act for Tinka in a non brokered private placement without the review or approval of RGMP and contrary to firm policies and procedures. Ballanger did not inform either RGMP’s compliance department or his branch manager of this proposed financing before Tinka issued a press release announcing the private placement, nor did he notify the firm that he was in possession of confidential and potentially material non public information.
13. Subsequently RGMP approved the above private placement after the fact and participated in this financing. Ballanger receives confidential information regarding Tinka
14. On October 8, 2013, Ballanger emailed RGMP’s compliance department about a draft press release for a proposed Tinka financing. Ballanger had not previously notified RGMP about his knowledge or involvement in the proposed transaction or that he was in possession of confidential and potentially material non public information.
15. According to the Policies and Procedures Manual, Ballanger was required to inform
RGMP’s Compliance department if he was in possession of potential inside information. Given the circumstances of this transaction, Ballanger knew or ought to have known that he was required to inform RGMP of the confidential or potentially material non public information regarding Tinka.
16. In an October 8, 2013 email, RGMP’s CCO reminded Ballanger of the firm’s procedures relating to the receipt and containment of confidential information.
17. RGMP added Tinka to its grey list on October 8, 2013 and added it to the restricted list on November 7, 2013 when the private placement financing was announced publicly. On November 8, 2013 RGMP’s compliance department sent Ballanger an email questioning trades in Tinka executed for one of his clients between October 22 and 24, 2013, as these trades were not marked unsolicited.
Close supervision by RGMP
19. RGMP questioned Ballanger further in February 2014 and when his responses were not satisfactory to the firm, Ballanger was placed under close supervision by RGMP in April
2014. At that time the following conditions were imposed:
*close supervision for a period of not less than six months;
*all new accounts were to be reviewed by branch management;
*he was not allowed to enter solicited buys in Tinka;
*he was not allowed to reference Tinka in marketing materials;
*he could not sell his personal holdings or trade in this security until all client sales were satisfied and,
*he was to develop an exit strategy for this security, to be presented to management within 30 days.
20. In early June 2014 Ballanger met with the compliance department and was reminded that he was to do the following:
*prepare a written plan for the disposition of Tinka;
* not to discuss investment recommendations on social media;* bring receipt of non public information to the attention of the compliance department and,
*all marketing materials should be pre approved.
21. Ultimately the Respondent did not present an exit strategy for Tinka to RGMP. Ballanger’s employment was terminated by RGMP in September 2014 before the close supervision period had ended.

Meanwhile at the Colombia Gold Symposium...

...an excellent two days of presentations and conferencing is being had by all, with site visits scheduled for the rest of the week. However, even though just about every presentation has been well delivered and interesting one of them stands out head and shoulders above the others. Expect a discussion on that in The IKN Weekly on Sunday, subbers.

PS: Some really interesting information about Michael Ballanger, too.

Atico Mining (ATY.v) down due to misinformation

Yes, Atico Mining (ATY.v) has slid right down to 57c.

Yes, the drop is likely due to word out of Colombia that the road to the mine is being blocked by locals.

But no, it's nothing to do with the company. The roadblock is due to a strike action by local farmers against a regional government policy on agro matters and has nothing at all to do with mining in general or ATY in particular. The mine is operating normally and workers are allowed to enter and leave the mine as per normal, too. Don't believe all the rumours you hear, people.

11/14/17

Asanko (AKG)

Don't say you weren't warned.

Primero Mining (P.to): IKN wins a wager

Primero: Buys Cerro Del Gallo in 2012 for C$119m. Sells Cerro Del Gallo in 2017 for U$15m. Winning.


I've had a U$50 bet running with reader/pal 'MK' for the whole of this year and I just won it. The theory behind my choosing of Argonaut (AR.to) as the eventual buyer of Primero's (P.to) Cerro del Gallo is that it would take a company that's 1) larger than and also 2) even more inept and stupid than P to pay real money for that waste of concession paperwork and when it comes to Mexico, there was only one candidate.

MK, expecting your mail, sir :-)


Zinc mailbag

I get this mail asking me why zinc has stalled and why it isn't going higher:



Some people are never happy.  Vancouver promoters continue to enjoy an endless supply of cannon fodder, though.

Chile: The Presidential election and the Dominga project

From IKN443, last Sunday:






Chile: The Presidential election and the Dominga project
Two things from Chile that are extremely unlikely to be coincidental. Next Sunday November 19th sees the first round of the Chilean Presidential election and the final set of voter polling shows ex-President Sebastian Piñera still way out in front with 45% (12). If it works out that way it won’t be enough to get him the win in round one, but it’s more of a case of him putting the champagne on ice until the run-off vote December 19th than anything else (and by most reports (13) he was the winner of last night’s final candidate debate on live TV, too).

The second matter is that of Dominga, the U$2.5Bn iron ore project located near the coast in the centre of the country owned by Chinese private capital company Andes Iron which had its EIA permit denied in August this year due to it adversely affecting a colony of Humboldt penguins nearby. At the time of the denial it was considered a win for the environmentalists (it’s always been a controversial project) and a loss for the Chilean mining world and it was, of course, all under the centre-left government of the outgoing Michelle Bachelet. As reported on these pages at the time, Bachelet saw her Finance Minister resign due to the decision (made at cabinet level, but now this weekend we hear that (14) (translated), “Experts Indicate That Environmental Evaluation of Dominga Has Still Not Finished”, that the company has the right to lodge an appeal and the decision if necessary will go to the Supreme Court. Etc etc.

In so many words, the upcoming right wing government will green light this project and the left in Chile will have something to complain about. We should at least ask the Humboldt penguins (for what it’s worth, native to the Chile and Peru coasts and listed as a vulnerable species rather than endangered)if they’d like to move house before it starts, though.




11/13/17

This blog will have reduced amounts of posts for the next few days

For secret reasons.


11/12/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN443 has just been sent to subscribers. No bull.

11/11/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC)". Oh look, a post about a Canadian junior moving into cryptocurrencies is popular.

Second Place: "More on the upcoming scam called Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC)". Oh look, a post about a Canadian junior moving into cryptocurrencies is popular.
 
First Place: "HIVE.v: Word on the street is...". Oh look, a post about a Canadian junior moving into cryptocurrencies is popular. 

So therefore...STOP! Let it be known that IKN doesn't suffer from FOMO and isn't about to get mission creep on crypto things. For sure I'll post on things when the seedier stories about the scams and rip-off merchants moving into crypto show up, but IKN isn't about to change direction just because a topic away from (real) mining is faddy and in fashion. So don't rely on this humble corner of cyberspace for your coin information from now on, thank you for your attention.

11/10/17

The Friday OT: U2; Running to stand still

The story of my week.



Great track, though. From the time the band was both relevant and damned good (you gotta be old to remember that far back). These days just a bunch of tax-dodgers and stadium players for middle-aged gits like me with nothing better to do with their cash. Youtube here.

Graña y Montero (GRAM) is dumping hard today...

...because of the Marcelo Odebrecht witness testimony. Frankly I think there's another buying opportunity here, it's mostly a question of not trying to catch a falling knife and letting the sellers sell out totally.

Good to see Rick Rule hasn't lost it

On BNN last night he reco'd EMX Royalty (EMX) as a Top Pick and it's popped nicely this morning.

Thereby bringing a bit of relief to his bagholder clients. Happy days.

Auryn Resources (AUG.v): A cash thing

EDIT: I got Goldcorpse mixed up with Kinross. Brainfart, the rest stands.

The 3q17 financials out of Auryn Resources (AUG.v) last night made for interesting reading, with the statement of cash flows really catching the eye of your humble scribe:


 
Back in January 2017, AUG raised a cool C$41.172m gross proceeds (C$38.911m net...gotta pay the middleman) at C$3.67 for the normal shares and C$5.01 for the flow thru shares (Kinross Goldcorp, hold that bag) and as that highlighted item shows, C$24.714m has been spent on exploration and evaluation already, so where has the money gone?

A bit of extra digging shows that in January AUG had the intention of spending C$15.5m on its flagship Committee Bay project in Canada, as well as C$7.5m at its Homestake project and then other stuff. Up to date they've kept the Homestake project under budget ($5.638m), but the C$22.53m dumped into Committee Bay is an eye-watering overspend. The company's cash pile is now down to C$15.357m and with C$9.3m of that already committed in Q4, the conclusion is obvious even before the drills start turning on the Peru gig.

Hey Kinross Goldcorpse! If you liked buying into this at $3.67, you're gonna love the chance to repeat at $2.00, right? Right?

West High Yield (WHY.v) to open for trading this morning

That's in about 17 minutes' time and the market is indicating 18c to 20c open right now. Which is 18c to 20c more than it's worth.

11/9/17

Asanko Gold (AKG): The managerial bullshit now smells so strong that...

...even sellside brokerage analysts cannot ignore the stench any longer. It wasn't even two months ago when the CEO of Asanko, Peter Breese, stood up in front of the audience at the Denver Gold Show and said this (exact quote):
“We published a very robust feasibility study to grow this company from circa 220,000 ounces a year to 450,000 ounces a year at the end of May, or, beginning of June.  And at the time of the publication of that Feasibility study we were under sustained short attack, so we’ve sat back and said to ourselves, and as Tara said we’re a topic of conversation amongst the investing public, we said to ourselves, what do we do about this? You know we, as a team have built perhaps 15 mines around the world over the last 30 to 40 years, and we said well there’s only one way to sort out the short attacks and that’s to show them that they’ve picked on the wrong people.  So we are looking very clearly at focusing on operational delivery.”
It's an interesting document, that Feasibility Study published by Asanko and quoted by its CEO, because it's quite clear that AKG's boss is now hoping that nobody has bothered to open it and read it. Sorry Peter, you're out of luck. In that FS AKG forecast the following production:

2017: 242,042 oz Au
2018: 267,943 oz Au

With me so far? Good, because the first thing we need to know is that AKG is lagging massively behind its own FS expectations. We won't know until the end of the year of course, but as the company produced a total of 153,497 oz gold in the first three quarters of 2017 it's a fair guess they're going to come in around 205,000 oz to 210,000 oz. In other words, a big miss compared to the FS that Breese quoted so merrily a few weeks ago and if they're lucky, AKG will squeeze into the bottom end of the 205koz to 225koz range they revised downwards after the 2q17 earnings.

Now we skip to the news today. They said nothing about this just two weeks ago on earnings and ConfCall day, suddenly on the back of an analyst and investor site visit to their operations AKG has released this document and everso everso sneakily, on page 13, they stick in another production downgrade:

2018 Mine Scheduling Dynamics

• Nkran

• Practically, the deposit is limited to 3Mtpa rates

• Always anticipated cyclical ore yields

• Geotechnical redesign of oxides slopes have added waste strip ~4Mt

• Currently 50% through the pushback investment Cut 2, this continues through 2018

• Oxide reserves - 1.3Mt reduction in available oxide ore tonnes planned from Akwasiso & Dynamite hill

• Granites - Restricted throughput rates due to high Bond Work Index

• Multiple Ore Sources

• Nkran

• Akwasiso established June, limited oxides, 50% granites, 1.5 g/t grade, but with some 2 g/t areas

• Dynamite Hill establishing currently, +2Mt ore with 500,000t oxides @ 1.5 g/t

• Stockpiles (3Mt @ 1.1 g/t)

Implications

• All ore sources required to meet the 5Mtpa feed requirement

• Stockpile feed required to offset oxides reductions

• Mill feed grade consistent with reserve grade ratios

• Bond work index – granites blended at limited rates into feed

• 2018 production expected to be similar to current 2017 range

There is so much to love in that bullet point mess it's difficult to know where to start, but let's go with the last bullet. Ottotrans time! "Oh, by the way...remember that 267k oz gold we said we'd produce in 2018....errr, it's 210k max now". Or how about gobbledygook such as "Geotechnical redesign of oxides slopes have added waste strip"? Stick that through the Ottotrans and you get "The short attackers are right, our pit walls are farked and strip rates are going even higher, so don't expect those ounces to do anything like make a profit now, yeah?" And yes sir yes madame, you are correct in pointing out to me that this is the company with a crapload of financial debt to pay back from....errr....its cash flow.

Which brings me to the sellside anal yst reference in the top sentence, because AKG may still be able to pull the wool over the eyes of your average sellside dumbass in a suit but the sharper ones have started to work it out. Step forward and take a bow Jeff Killeen of CIBC who wrote in his AKG update report today:
"Asanko has unexpectedly reduced 2018 production guidance through release of an updated site visit presentation. The deck suggests 2018 production will be similar to the 2017 range (205koz-225koz), which is materially below our estimate of ~246koz and well below the Q2/17 technical study that guided for ~267koz in 2018. Adjusting our model, we see a negative ~14% impact on production and an ~18% impact on our 2018E CFPS."
And ends the note with a flourish, too:
With potential for further negative reserve revisions on the horizon and operational performance issues to date, we continue to expect AKG shares to underperform.

Correct, Mr. Killeen. Way past time that the serial BSsers get called out by the Canadian brokerages so well done you. My only beef with your note is that you have a CAD$1.00 price target on the stock, as that's precisely one Loonie too high.



Most of the B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) 3q17 financials were in-line...

...with expectations, which isn't a shocker because the company pre-announced production for Q3 as well as sales and revenue so even the dumbasses in suits you know as sellside brokerage analysts could get close to the numbers before today's NR. But this...

"In October 2017, subsequent to the third quarter, the Fekola Mine produced 33,946 ounces of gold in the month (significantly surpassing budget of 15,100 ounces) and is now expected to achieve commercial production (four months ahead of original schedule) by the end of November."

...is another story. Expect BTO to rally today and don't say you weren't warned.

11/8/17

The last honest economic study

Let's take a trip back to 2013.

After the Argonaut Gold (AR.to) PEA for its Magino project this morning in which the company told us with a straight face that it has a 19.5% IRR (and just love that 5% discount on the NPV, guys), a NR that could only solicit our pal the parrot...



...a couple of pals and your humble scribe were chewing the cud on the woeful state of economic studies in general when one of them asked (and I quote), "Has there ever been a negative feasibility study?" The memory cells went BEEEP! at IKN Nerve Centre and after a couple of minutes of Google search we were all laughing hard at potentially the last ever fully honest Feas Study from any publicly traded junior mining company. Step forward and a round of applause for International Tower Hill (ITH.to) and its July 2013 FS on its Livengood project, a document so good it included this table in its NR:



Yes indeed, a negative IRR at U$1,400/oz gold, thanks you thanking you oh thank you ITH. But hey, you do get a +17.8% IRR, all you need is....a gold price $400/oz higher than it's ever traded. Details.

We should of course mention that just five months after this FS came out, the ITH CEO and three other members of the board of directors were fired. Today ITH is back in the fold and insists that Livengood is economic at current market prices. The old management were stupid enough to be honest, y'see.

More on the upcoming scam called Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC)

Seriously, the Deslauriers brothers make Frank Giustra look like a piker. Mind you, the Bhartis pere et fils are in one this one from the ground level too, birds of a feather etc. Check out the way in which they've put together the capital structure at this thing the despicable Canaccord is now flogging to the world.


So once again in the very near futures, when you retail saps are buying these guys willbe selling. You get worthless paper, they get your dollars. And yes, you're right, Deslauriers + Canaccord is exactly the same combo as the other recent bandwagon scam, Cannabis Wheaton (CBW.v).



Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC)

People, when I get no less than four mails in one morning on one company and the mails are along these lines...

"...Canaccord is leading a financing for Global Blockchain Technologies (BLOC). This is the crypto-scam company set up by the DLE brothers, but like a supergroup they added Andy DiFrancesco to beef up the guitar solos and accelerate the movement of money from your wallet to theirs. HIVE looks like a blue chip compared to this thing."

...there may be a story brewing for IKN. Stay tuned and if you want to join in the mailfest, you know the address.

Tinka (TK.v) opens up 6.8% at 79c today...

...on the back of its resource update NR, here. Can't blame the buyers, TK has delivered a big up on its original resource.

UPDATE: Make that 87c

11/7/17

And the Deepgreen deal collapses

Remember this post? And this one of course (even better). Seems things didn't turn out quite the way Bri-Bri imagined.

Vancouver, British Columbia, November 2, 2017 – DV Resources Ltd. (“DV” or the “Company”) (TSXV – DLV.H) announces that, due to certain conditions precedent to its proposed business combination transaction with DeepGreen Resources Inc. (“DeepGreen”), which was originally announced by DV on May 30, 2017, remaining unfulfilled, and by mutual agreement, DeepGreen and DV have allowed the amalgamation agreement to lapse as of October 31, 2017.
DeepGreen has advised DV that it has determined to raise capital privately and postpone its going public process.
The Company further announces the resignation of Brian Paes-Braga as Director, and Melinda Coghill as CFO and Corporate Secretary. Jasvir Kaloti has been appointed CFO and Corporate Secretary of the Company.

Bobby Genovese news

IKN receives mailbag:

"So Bobby G’s team of lightweights Bruce Reid etc haven’t made their 31st October $1m payment to the Bunker Hill Mine owner, apparently extending the deadline with another interim payment, and trying to run a highly discounted private placement without mentioning that pretty material fact? Say it ain’t so…"

How's that SEC prosecution going, Bobby?




HIVE: You must read this link

It's not going to happen very often on IKN, but this humble corner of cyberspace strongly recommends that you read this piece by Lord Haw-Haw this morning:




Honestly, I've read it four times so far. Just the most incredibly, amazingly, stupendously stupid thing I've ever seen come out of the Vancouver cesspool. And of course we now know the "anonymous" Short Report at the weekend is fully in line with Fiore policy. The moment when the people who normally giggle behind Frank Giustra's back start laughing in his face has finally arrived.

UPDATE: Reader M notes that the article has 903 words and the disclaimer has 613. Wonderful.

The likely reason Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) down heavily today...

...isn't the zero news from Escobal, that's baked in. It's more likely this table from the financials:


La Arena was the only division that made money.

Expensive hobby, mining.

11/6/17

HIVE.v: Word on the street is...

...that the anonymous Short Report that hit the wires last night on the company was commissioned by Frank Giustra and authored by Tommy Humphreys.

In need of a liquidity event, gents?

UPDATE: We note Short Report author Lord Haw Haw informs us today regarding HIVE that, "Insiders and management of the company are currently prohibited from selling into the market." For the record, Frank Giustra is neither a registered insider nor management of HIVE. Just saying.

Argentina: Chubut's mining scene after Das Neves (from IKN442)

This is a short section from yesterday's edition of The IKN Weekly. The subject; whether the Chubut province of Argentina, home to Pan American Silver's (PAAS) Navidad project among others, is about to unfreeze its mining potential now that anti-mining governor Mario Das Neves has passed away.


Argentina: The death of Mario Das Neves

Though it’s somewhat crass to start by acknowledging the death of the Chubut Governor Mario Das Neves with a quick nod and a line of script, but then move straight into what it might mean for the mining industry in the Chubut province as well as wider Argentina, you will forgive me for the necessary evil.



Mario Das Neves was one of the loudest anti-mining voices in the country and nothing less than a scourge for the mining companies looking to set up business in the Chubut province, such as Pan American Silver (PAAS) at the world-class silver/lead/zinc Navidad project, Yamana (AUY) at the Esquel gold project in the Western Andean foothills of Chubut or any one of several juniors with uranium assets there. His death would therefore seem at first sight to be a positive check mark for the mining camp, but it’s unlikely to be as simple or easy as that because of who the new governor of Chubut is. The previous vice-Governor, one Mariano Arcioni, has already been sworn in and is currently in the process of deciding on his new cabinet of regional ministers. They will be officially decided in his first cabinet meeting tomorrow Monday and though we already know three of the ex-Das Neves cabinet have had their resignations accepted, we won’t know the full make up until then.



However, we do know that in previous declarations at least, Mariano Arcioni takes a very similar line to that of his now deceased boss on mining. For example, earlier this year when the National Minister for Energy and Mining, Juan José Aranguren, was pushing Chubut to permit and develop Navidad (Macri and Ross Beaty see ey to eye on most things) the then Vice-Governor Arcioni was quick to respond to media channels (21) with, “We are not going to let anyone force any project upon us (the Chubut people) that goes against our provincial sovereignty”. And once again in this simple statement, be it from the mouth of the governor or whoever, we see the power of the provincial politics to green or red light any plan or initiative promoted by the national government on a nationwide scale (mining or any other). Another statement on mining made by the new Governor of Chubut came mid-2016 (22) and was again centred on Macri’s desire to get Navidad going (we’ve already noted how much of the national project asset book Navidad represents, it’s too big to ignore for the country government). This time Arcioni said, “At this time open pit mining using cyanide is prohibited (in Chubut). The law is that and until certain safety measures regarding water and controls are guaranteed, it’s an issue that’s far in the future to debate. Despite the President’s desire, today in Chubut it’s a long way off”.



We need to watch carefully this week for any signs that the new governor might take a different line to the mining question now in power (was he simply toeing the Das Neves line before?) and that starts with the unveiling of his picks for Chubut regional ministers tomorrow Monday. However, if he takes the same line as before, we still shouldn’t hold our breath about Chubut joining the more pro-mining provinces of Argentina.


Chart of the day is...

...the Gold/Silver ratio, 12 months:



How's the "Silver to outperform gold in 2017" forecast working out for you, silverbugs?

Let's not worry too much about Keith Neumeyer and his "going back to 15-to-1" call, eh...

WHY to die

A couple of weeks ago in this post, we had a good old laugh chuckle yok and guffasabout the blithering idiots who couldn't see that West High Yield (WHY.v) and its magnesium stupidity was the most obvious scam story of the year.

Today the music stops, WHY about to die. Check out the neat and correct resume of the WHY.v NR over at Alpha Mining, then watch the fun over at the TSXV later as WHY.v does its Stuka dive bomber impersonation...without the pull-out move at the end.

11/5/17

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN442 has just been sent to subscribers. Thirty pages and 14,500 words. Plus plenty of number. And charts too. And footnotes of course. In other words, a pretty standard and classic old-school formation.

Sutherland Springs

On October 2nd this post went up, entitled "This Modern World". And here we are again, it took less than five weeks.

 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


This Modern World

It never gets old. Just replace the word "Tucson" for "Las Vegas". Or Miami. Or Aurora. Or Columbine. Or (etc):
 

And change the number of dead.

11/4/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order on a quiet week for the blog (normal service resumes Monday):

Third Place: "NR of the day award goes to...". Oh Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL), can I count the ways I love thee and thy mediocrity?

Second Place: "Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Jaime Pinto has been a very naughty boy". This development (plus the update posts here and here) is the start of a whole house of pain for the scumbags who tried to wrest Ollachea away from IRL by all means fair and foul (mostly foul). About time too, Pinto will be the first to suffer but there will be others. Meanwhile, long-suffering IRL shareholders (include me in) will finally get their day in the sun. This whole saga has gone on too long already and there is still mess to clear up, but light is now clearly visible at the end of the tunnel.
 
First Place: "Smart move by Tinka (TK.v)". Not much more than a short reflection on the recent corporate move by TK and the way the market reacted, but since the post TK has moved even higher, trading in the 70s. The post probably picked up extra eyeballs due to that.

11/3/17

The Friday OT: BT; Skylarking (again)

A repeat showing of this track from just a couple of months ago, but I don't care. Shamelessly evangelized on IKN because if I get one more set of ears to hear it today, it's worthwhile. Utterly beautiful, make sure you listen through quality speakers.




Youtube here.

More reports on the Jaime Pinto bribery story

The story is starting to gain traction in Peru. This one in Puno's 'Los Andes' newspaper gets one fact wrong in that it says Minera IRL has brought the charges against the judge. In fact it's the Peru State prosecutor that's brought the charges. However it does state that Pinto has been paying the judge S/.5000 (U$1,543) per month and this humble corner of cyberspace hears that is the correct figure. It also syas that Pinto is involved with another mining company and has been impeding the start of the project in order to benefit this other company.

Meanwhile, this one in Peru national paper Correo states that the charges come from intercepted text and social media messages between the judge, Juan Cáceres Tito, and Jaime Pinto. It also has local sources asking how the judge managed to accumulate properties and make very frequent visits by plane to Lima on a salary of just S/800 per month. What happens now is that the judge is placed under a 60 day investigation period, after which the State prosecutor decides what to do with him and with his alleged corruptor, Jaime Pinto.

11/2/17

Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL) markets in Germany

Reader BL kindly sends in this photo of Great Panther Silver's (GPR.to) (GPL) stall at the Edelmetalle conference in Munich Germany today:


BL's mail asked, "Making money? Really?". Your humble scribe replied, "Refers to management salaries."

Minera IRL: The Jaime Pinto bribery news...

...that sees a local judge in the Ollachea district charged by the State for receiving bribes from Pinto has so far only made it to a regional newspaper, "Sin Fronteras". But as soon as the Peru national newspapers put two and two together and see that the quasi-State financing bank COFIDE is involved, this will become a chunkily sized corruption story. Here's a photo of the dead tree version of yesterday's (Nov 1) report in 'Sin Fronteras':

(PS: And yes, this does mean that the chances of this whole mess being cleared up quickly and in Minera IRL's favour have just shot higher)

0

11/1/17

Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Jaime Pinto has been a very naughty boy

The judge in Ollachea has just been accused by the Peru State of accepting bribes in order to oppose the go-ahead of the Minera IRL Ollachea project in Peru.

The person bribing him? According to the State prosecutor, one Jaime Pinto. Let the unravelling of the liars and thieves begin.

Lithium X (LIX.v) on October 11th....

...told us this regarding its bought deal:

"Closing is expected on or about October 31, 2017..."

But the date has gone and there's no news yet. Problem, Bri-Bri?

Mario Das Neves, QEPD

Via reader and pal 'MY', I've just heard that Mario Das Neves, governor of the Chubut province of Argentina and among many other things a staunch anti-mining figure in the country, died last night. He'd been diagnosed with cancer in 2015 and in August took a medical leave of absence.

May he rest in peace.

Smart move by Tinka (TK.v)

Up 10% since listing on the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL), Tinka Resources (TK.v) must have put a few noses out of joint in Vancouver. By finding a real and new source of capital, TK has wrested price control away from the brokerage turdbrains who have been capping the stock price for the last six months or so.


Smart move, Carman. 

10/31/17

NR of the day award goes to...

...Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL), for being able to say...

"The third quarter was a very successful and eventful quarter for Great Panther."

...and then just one paragraph later...

"Great Panther reported a net loss of $0.7 million for the third quarter of 2017"

...with a straight face. I mean, imagine what a merely "good" quarter would look like?  However, it's an excellent moment to recognize and celebrate the fact we live in a free society with freedom of expression and everything concerned. In other words GPR is allowed to spout all the bollocks and twattery it wants in its NRs and the market...



...is free to give its own judgement on this "very successful" quarter as well.

10/30/17

Posting will be light on this blog for a few days

For secret reasons.

10/29/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN441 has just been sent to subscribers. A reduced edition this week, time is tight for other reasons. Secret ones.

10/28/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Hive and Oilprice: À la recherche du pump perdu". I did like the title line on this one, it must be admitted.

Second Place: "Anfield Trek and NewCastle is a three-way merger". IKN breaks the news four or five hours before it happens, the short post gets a stack of hits, the news comes out. A popular post. Normal.
 
First Place: "Lithium X (LIX.v) receives a mail". More to come on this story, too. A lot more. If you're still long this stock that's your right and privilege in a free society, but don't say you weren't warned.

10/27/17

The Friday OT: Joaquin Sabina; Lo Niego Todo

Here's the man.



Here's the youtube.


And here's his in concert last weekend.



Photo: Your author's Samsung. A brilliant gig.

Travelling man

I'll get round to posting something later, when all this aeroplane stuff is done. Talk amongst yourselves.

10/26/17

Crapstone Mining (CS.to): Remember that "zero cost collar" from late 2016?

The one we guffawed and laughed about in this post dated November 9th? Well so far that "zero cost" device put in place by Darren DropThe Pylot has cost the company eleven point eight eight six million United States Dollars. Including U$9.14m in the 3q17 numbers just out

Mediocrity, thy name is mining executive.

Nexa (ex-Votorantim Metais) IPOs tomorrow Friday

Led by JP Morgan. Price, U$16.

Catching up with Rick Rule and Amir Adnani's "Selling Snake Oil To Idiots" series

Back in mid-July, we covered the two part conversation between Amir Adnani (of GOLD.v and UEC) Rick Rule (of everywhere). They called part one "Leverage to Gold: Acquiring 'Ounces in the Ground" in which, what a shock, they thought GOLD.v was a great buy and part two "How To Play The Next Uranium Bull Market" in which, another shockah, UEC was plat du jour. As noted at the time, IKN's alternative titles were far more accurate. 

So, let's see how they got on with their blatant little pumpjob:

Here's GoldMining Inc (better known as TwatMining*) (GOLD.v) from then to now:
So, 17% down in three-and-a-bit months. I suppose if you liked at at $1.68 you gotta love it at $1.39, right? And here's Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), same period:

Oh, just the 35% down guys? Hey, here's hoping you thought about taking a few coins off the table during that...errr..."liquidity event" back then.



*We remind our esteemed readership of this edition of "Mining PRs and the Ottotrans", which included the following NR translation:
VANCOUVER , Dec. 5, 2016 /CNW/ - Brazil Resources Inc. (the "Company" or "Brazil Resources") (TSX-V: BRI; OTCQX: BRIZF) is pleased to announce that its board of directors has approved a change of its name to "TwatMining Inc.", effective December 6, 2016 , in order to better reflect its existing business. The Company also announces that it will concurrently complete a continuation (the "Continuation") under the Canada Business Corporations Act (the "CBCA").
Chairman of the Board, Amir Adnani , stated: "We are pleased to change the name of the Company to TwatMining Inc. to better reflect the type of person we wish to attract as a shareholder."
The Company's common shares are expected to commence trading on the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSX-V") under the new symbol "TWAT" and on the OTCQX International market (the "OTCQX") under the new symbol "TWTLF" on December 7, 2016 .  The Company expects that on the same date its listed warrants will commence trading on the TSX-V under the new symbol "TWAT.WTF" and on the OTCQX under the new symbol "TWTWTF". 

Thank you for your attention.

The Tier One earnings day sweepstakes

We got the 3q17 earnings from the big four goldies between post close yesterday and the open today, let us see how (in order of market cap size as of last night) Newmont (NEM), Barrick (ABX), Goldcorpse (GG) and Agnico (AEM) have got on compared to the Gold & Silver Index (XAU) today:

Heavy fail, Barrick (ABX):

ABX didn't deliver on the bottom line and on a negative day for miners like today, your stock is duly crushed no matter how much extra polish you've added to the balance sheet.

One thumb down, Newmont (NEM):

NEM gave us an in-line quarter, which isn't enough on a negative day for miners like today.


One thumb up, Goldcorpse (GG):
Decent production and better costs than I and many expected. Still it's only just above UNCH today after popping early doors, gold's drop has taken the shine off everything.

And the winner is Agnico (AEM):
An excellent quarter, a beat on just about every metric and a dividend bonus, too. The market darling delivers again and there's now less then $750m market cap difference between AEM and GG...gonna gitcha Garofalo.

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio:




Remember the period of mining sufferance we went through in 2013 and 2014? Prefer not to think about it too hard? Yeah well me too, but the point here is that the gold/copper ratio is back to where it was during the Death Of Everything period.

And as gold miners aren't doing too badly (without it being a full scale party of course, but the numbers out of AEM, GG and even NEM show there's profit being made), which can only mean it's heady and full bull in the copper space.

10/25/17

Lithium X (LIX.v) receives a mail

First LIX received this from the fund mentioned on Monday October 23rd, then IKN received it from some place inside LIX between then and today. Not from Bri-Bri mind you, but from one of the people he thinks is his friend. Read on, Mr. Duggan:

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Delbrook Capital Advisors Inc. (“Delbrook”), a shareholder of Lithium X Energy Corp. (“Lithium X” or the “Company”), is contacting the Board of Directors to register its concern and to request information related to the interests that the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Brian Paes-Braga had in the Company (which was known at the time as Royce Resources Corp.) in the reacquisition transaction of the Company which was completed on November 26, 2015 (the ”Transaction”).

It is our understanding, based upon the public disclosure of the Company, that pursuant to the Transaction, the Company acquired all of the issued and outstanding securities of 1045564 B.C. Ltd. (“Privco”) in exchange for common shares of the Company. The Transaction was announced on October 2, 2015 and detailed in a filing statement on SEDAR dated November 20, 20151 (the “Filing Statement”). Delbrook further understands that Mr. Paes-Braga, a director, officer and majority shareholder of Privco, acquired 3,000,000 common shares of the Company in exchange for the shares of Privco he held, and became President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of the Company. Delbrook notes that the public disclosure indicates that Mr. Paes-Braga did not beneficially own, direct or control, directly or indirectly, any securities of the Company at the time of the transaction.

Delbrook has received information which alleges that Mr. Paes-Braga did in fact, contrary to the public disclosure, have an interest, direct or indirect, in the Company at the time of the Transaction and benefitted economically from the Transaction in a manner which was not disclosed to the public in accordance with applicable securities laws and TSX Venture Exchange (the “Exchange”) policies.

Accordingly, as a shareholder of the Company, Delbrook requests the Board of Directors confirm to it, and provides satisfactory evidence in respect of the same, that Mr. Brian Paes-Braga, together with his affiliates, associates or any other with whom he was acting jointly and in concert (as all such terms are defined under applicable Canadian securities law) (collectively the “Paes-Braga Group”) held no shares and had no economic interest, directly or otherwise, in the Company at any time prior to, or on completion of, the Transaction. Delbrook is requesting that the Board of Directors provide evidence of this by delivering a list of non-objecting beneficial owners (“NOBO”) of the Company prior to, at the time of, and following completion of the Transaction, including a copy of the NOBO list generated in connection with the Company’s annual and special meeting held on November 26, 2015. In addition, please provide us with a certified copy of the security registers of Privco immediately prior to the completion of the Transaction (together with the requested NOBO lists, the “Shareholder Information”).

Delbrook requests this information due to concerns that the Paes-Braga Group had an interest in the Company, which was not properly disclosed by Mr. Paes-Braga or the Company in connection with the Transaction. Clearly, this interest would be material information required to be disclosed publically under both applicable securities laws and the Exchange policies, including without limitation under Exchange Policy 5.9 and Multilateral Instrument 61-101 – Protection of Minority Shareholders in Special Transactions, National Instrument 51-102 – Continuous Disclosure Obligations, Part 5 of National Instrument 62-104 - Take-Over Bids and Issuer Bids, National Instrument 62-103 – The Early Warning System and Related Take-Over Bid and Insider Reporting Issues, National Instrument 55-104 – Insider Reporting Requirements and Exemptions, Exchange Policy 3.3 – Timely Disclosure and Exchange Policy 5.2- Changes in Business and Reverse Take-overs. Further, in the event that any such interest did exist and was not disclosed, the disclosure contained in the Filing Statement (which was certified by the directors and officers of both the Company and Privco as being full, true and plain disclosure of all material information) and in the Early Warning Press Release, Early Warning Report and SEDI report filed by Mr. Paes-Braga would contain material misrepresentations, which could result in serious consequences for the Company and Mr. Paes-Braga personally, pursuant to securities legislation.

In addition to our concerns set out above, the information received would further imply that the methods which may have been used by Mr. Paes-Braga to attempt to disguise his interest in the Company at the time of the Transaction, may also give rise to concerns related to the improper transfer and re-registration of securities and compliance of the same with applicable market integrity rules.

As a shareholder of the company, Delbrook is very concerned that the alleged activity of Mr. Paes-Braga, if proven to be true, poses a material risk to shareholders and believe the Board of Directors must take steps to address these concerns, including the provision of the information requested above and to the commencement of a fulsome and detailed investigation into these allegations.

Delbrook would note that since the Transaction the Company has filed annual audited financial statements2, an annual information form3, and a short form prospectus4. These documents were not only certified to contain full, true and plain disclosure by Mr. Paes-Braga, as Chief Executive Officer, but also by other directors and officers of the Company. In addition, Delbrook notes that on October 11, 2017 the Company has announced an additional capital raise via short form prospectus, which is scheduled to close on or about October 31, 2017. As the board will again be called to certify the accuracy and completeness of the information contained or incorporated by reference therein, Delbrook would expect that the Company will need to investigate these allegations as soon as possible, and in any event prior to the closing of this announced offering.

Delbrook thanks you in advance for your prompt attention to this matter, and asks that you please provide it with a written reply to this letter which addresses in adequate detail Delbrook’s concerns, and provide Delbrook with a copy of the Shareholder Lists not later than October 27, 2017.

Three cognitive biases that stop me from making more money (from IKN440)

This was the main intro piece from IKN440, out last Sunday evening. I have redacted the names of companies used as examples as they're for subscribers. The rest as-is:

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Three cognitive biases that stop me from making more money
What are your hang-ups as an investor? One thing is true without a doubt; we all have them. From there, most investors are aware of their weaknesses, the smarter ones work on them to get better at this crazy game. The individual investor (or even the fund manager, as long as they don’t work for Ray Dalio) tends to do this in the private sphere, it’s not easy to go around boasted about one’s weaknesses but what with being the author of a weekly publication that is based firmly and squarely on what I’m doing with my cash, coupled with my constant exhortations that “I am not you” and you should take the information provided here and use in for your own circumstances, I’m at the point where this subject has irritated me too long, it needs to be aired. Therefore today you get an overview of what I consider to be my main weaknesses as an investor (though as you’ll see, even though I consider one of them a sensu stricto weakness I’m not in any hurry to do anything about it). There are others of course (and if you feel like it, you’re very welcome to write in and tell me if you think I have other blind spots that have gone un-mentioned today), but for my taste and perspective there are three big ones and they go like this:

1) I am overly loyal to a story. In other words, I tend to hang around too long when a stock’s development isn’t going according to its original plan. The problem here is often on a personal, human level rather than statistical or (lack of) results-driven and starts with the way in which I prefer betting on companies with strong, stand-up management teams with integrity and values. Once in, my weakness is to consider my position as a sponsorship and a moral backing. So when things don’t go to plan (and in mining “when” is better than “if”, more depends on the size and gravity of the problem) I get a dose of loyalty. Maybe not such a bad thing, but the issues start with “overly loyal”, the header of this point. Sticking with a team is fine, being stubborn and backing good people that don’t deliver isn’t so great. The best example of this one in my open list at the moment is (redacted).

The solution, one I work on actively, is to be a bit harder-nosed about selling when the story as it unfolds fails to match (or sufficiently match) my own expectations when I made the original purchase. As evidence, the way I sold (redacted) before the drop kicked in has worked well.

2) I’m a sucker for a Value Trap. This one is well documented round these parts. The numberwonk in me filters through the sector, finds the stock that’s cheap “considering what it has” and buys it. The main problem is that even if it goes up with the market, it’s always going to be “comparatively cheap” to peers and my hang-up shines through, it’s tough to sell even at a profit. Value is one thing and I consider it a positive that I search and find such stocks. The issue is with “Trap”, the companies that don’t attract market attention or bids because they’re poorly marketed, they don’t develop their project as expected (see point one), they out-run retail holders by diluting benefit away using placements, those and a list of others. I’ve really been trying to work on this weakness of mine and on my list of open stocks today, perhaps two can be described that way (though I’d argue against), the potential culprits in order of likelihood being (redacted).

3) I find it difficult to buy a “bad” company. This subject grates on me for two reasons. A great example of this are the mid-sized copper producers such as (redacted) They’re so badly run, insular, shareholder unfriendly and spend half their time just on either side of the breakeven line that I find it painful to consider how they’re sold to people as quality mining vehicles. However, I’m also the first to recognize that they’re exactly the type of stock to own (maybe “trade” is a better word) when the underlying market for copper makes significant moves in either direction. It’s partially due to their high cash cost and partially due to the very fact they’re run by mediocrity that makes them great trades if there’s a big move in copper (either direction, going long is most accessible to us retail for Canadian listed stocks), but try as I might I just can’t get myself to go long. Education inhibits risk taking, or to quote Hamlet for the umpteenth time “Thus conscience does make cowards of us all” and backing a company that’s obviously badly run is tough for me, even when it becomes patently obvious that due to outside factors it’s going to give you upside leverage.

However…and this is important, I really don’t feel like working on this weakness of mine! Unlike points 1) and 2) above, even after recognizing this inhibition to greater stock market profits I actively prefer not to do much about it. For one thing, if I use my strengths as an investor there are still plenty of other vehicles to choose from that will provide me with a market win (e.g. identifying (redated)). For another, there really is more to life than simply making money for me, the Paul van Eeden “Better Sleep Principle” has a corollary here and I just cannot feel relaxed about my sponsorship of mediocrity just because I can ride their backs for a few shekels, I much prefer to back people who do the right things in the right way, with the ideal that eventually the way in which business gets done may improve somewhat. All flowery and pie in the sky stuff, perhaps, but I sleep better that way. Life isn’t all about money.

Bottom line: The idea is that with those three in mind you get a better peek into my mindset and reasoning behind the trades published here in The IKN Weekly. Another bow in the quiver when deciding how to use the information provides for your own circumstances.